My enemy’s enemy is my friend.

The logic held in the title is one that is devoid of principal other than the one of putting one’s immediate self interest before every other consideration.

Much has been said of the appalling events in Israel. Up until now, I have not commented directly upon the events unfolding and will not be putting out daily content on the subject. For those who do want to hear, read and see reporting on the events as they happen I recommend two outlets:

The Jerusalem Post is a broadsheet newspaper based in Jerusalem, founded in 1932 during the British Mandate of Palestine by Gershon Agron as The Palestine Post. In 1950, it changed its name to The Jerusalem Post.

GOTO: https://www.jpost.com/

i24NEWS is an Israeli-based international 24-hour news television channel located in Jaffa Port, Tel Aviv, Israel. It broadcasts in French, English, and Arabic. English channel offers a weekly magazine in Spanish.

GOTO: https://www.i24news.tv/en

Alternatively one can visit the Balanced Broadcasting Collective.

GOTO: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67119233

Many (including government ministers) have been excoriating about the BBC not referring to Hamas as “terrorists”. The BBC reply that they have described Hamas actions as “terrorist acts”, describing those who carried out those acts as “militants”.

The reason?

The BBC has been allocating a huge amount of money into expanding it’s audience trying to transform itself into a broadcast service to the world. As such they are locating centres in places such as Singapore and recruiting staff locally. This being the case, the BBC are making “adjustments” in the way it present it’s news for the most practical of reasons; customer demand.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed there are positives to it. You see the BBC occupies a special place in the UK because of the realities of demography.

We in the UK live in what is known as the Anglophone area (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English-speaking_world). This is dominated by the USA simply because of the size of it’s economy and it’s population. There are more Yanks than Limeys!

I want the UK’s children to be able to access British English content and culture rather than US English content and culture.

One of the aspects of current reporting – and this applies particularly to the BBC – is that they concentrate on reporting the stories of victims and not discussions relating to strategies of the belligerents.

They do this for a reason: They aim to give what the majority of their audience demands. Most listeners and viewers are not military historians and ex-service people. They attentions spans are limited and – this applies especially to women (by women I mean biological women) tend to listen to what are called “human interest stories” and will literally turn off or switch to another channel if there is discussion of what could happen next from retired military officers.

Therefore this blog-post will explore what reasons might lie behind possible strategies.

Let us look at the present stream of events:

Hamas plans and prepares a large scale terrorist attack on Israeli civilians murdering many in the most brutal and cruel fashion and taking hostages. The attack was on such a scale that none in Hamas could not have been aware of what the Israeli response would be.

Many will ask what could Hamas possibly hope to gain from this?

Well the object of terrorists is to wreak terror on their victims. This is why they are called terrorists! The idea of terrorists committing acts of terror is to provoke a response from their defined enemy/enemies.

We know who Hamas regards as it’s enemies. These are the “Little Satan” Israel and the “Great Satan” the USA!

How many times have we seen supporters of the so-called “militants” shout, “Death to Israel!” and “Death to America!” More to the point, they meant it!

Now let us look beyond this. Iran is the paymaster and sponsor of Hamas. It is also the paymaster and sponsor of Hezbollah. It is widely thought that when and if the IDF enters Gaza, Hezbollah will attack northern Israel with as much force as it can muster. A mass response will not necessarily take place immediately. Hezbollah will likely make a series of small missile attacks but not so much as to provoke the IDF into making a large scale response. It may very well be the case that they will want to provoke the USN into a massive response.

Why?

Their aim is to destabilise the Middle East putting the kibosh on any “understanding” between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Most of all they want the USA to become embroiled in a Middle East war.

Why?

Because that will benefit a certain President Vladimir Putin embroiled in a war with Ukraine.

This because ammunition supplied to Israel cannot be supplied to Ukraine. President Putin knows that the USA has already drawn down much of it’s reserves of ammunition and is likely of the opinion that further drawdown and depletion to support Israel will mean that the USA will find itself in a position where it cannot safely continue to reduce it’s stockpiles any further.

But there is another aspect, one that has not been much mentioned. That is Iran’s continuing pursuit of developing a nuclear weapon. It is likely that North Korea is providing assistance here.

We do know this: Israel will NOT allow Iran to deploy a nuclear weapon.

An attack on Iran by Israel and/or the USA will have serious repercussions.

Iran’s response may well be to mine the Strait of Hormuz.

The problem for Iran is that China would be the principal loser here. China also buys oil from Russia and Venezuela. Venezuela’s output has recently fallen owing to a combination of US sanctions and lack of infrastructure support and maintenance. It is possible that China and Russia would send technicians to assist. In fact, they might already be there!

Of course, the oil and gas prices would “go through the roof” as the northern hemisphere enters winter.

This will strengthen Russia’s position.

It could well be a cold and dark Christmas!