As the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary sets off for her first (and last) Conservative Party Conference as it’s leader, ringing in her ears will be the comments of her loosing fellow leadership candidate, the Fortunate (for now) Mr Sunak explaining his non attendance at the conference as his wish that; “Liz can own the moment!”
As the old saying goes, “Revenge is a dish that people of taste prefer to be served cold!”
As the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary appears set to enter the history books as the shortest serving British Prime Minister in history, she might be reflecting on the description that a former political colleague – The Right Honourable The Lord Steel of Aikwood’ PC, KT, KBE – made of the UK’s two major political parties: “The Ugly Sisters”!
This description of course applies in the most part to the unfair and unrepresentative “First Past The Post” electoral system that the Liberal Democrats have always campaigned against. There is however another lesser aspect within the description and that is of the structure and the membership of the parties themselves. That is that the membership of both parties – in particular the active members (these are the people who voluntarily go out leafleting in all weathers and spend hours writing letters, typing out minutes, drawing up accounts) for the cause. Without these activists political parties could not exist!
The political activists (be they Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or UKIP) are the bedrock of a political party. The people are enthusiasts. They believe very strongly in ways in which (in their opinion) the UK and the world can be improved. This is something they all have in common! What they do NOT have in common is their opinions! These differ! One common thing about these differing opinions however is that these opinions are going to be more firmly held and more hard-line than the average member of the public who is inclined to vote for the political party of which they are a member.
This common feature results in MPs such as The Right Honourable Jeremy Corbyn, PC, MP the Member for Islington North.
There is a saying: “The politics of Britain are formed in the crucibles of the big battalions.” This is because of the electoral arithmetic and the one of the reasons why the First Past The Post system has survived as long as it has. This because in order to form a majority a political party must win the votes of a cross section of the electorate. This is amply demonstrated by contrasting the British system with the most extreme version of PR the party list used in Israel. In Israel it is possible for a political party to have an MP even if only a small number of voters vote for it. The result is that there are many political parties that range across the political spectrum from far right to far left. In Britain, when a political party too far in the direction preferred by it’s own activists it’s electoral chances are reduced. This is why so many political activists (across the spectrum) get depressed! These people are constantly frustrated that the hard-line policies that they wish to see implemented are watered down or not implemented at all!
The Labour Party has traditionally been the focus of mainstream media attention regarding this phenomenon. However the election firstly of Mr Johnson and now the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary causes attention to be focused on the Conservative activists. Conservative activists voted for Boris the Buffoon because of the man’s undoubted ability to appeal to the “Man in the Street”. The Buffoon’s most important quality was that he could get voters to vote Tory that other Tories could not. The Buffoon’s great failing was that he was completely unsuited the the actual task of being Prime Minister!
When it comes to the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary her redeeming quality (in the eyes of Tory activists) was that she was Loyal. Loyalty (to whoever is leading their party) is a characteristic that any MP – or person seeking to become an MP MUST have! The Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary had demonstrated her loyalty. This was in stark contrast to the Fortunate (for now) Mr Sunak! The Fortunate (for now) Mr Sunak was referred to as “the Backstabber” by many Tory activists!
That the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary advocated a “truly Conservative set of policies” was a big vote winner! That implementing these policies would cause the results they have is the consequence!
The Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary’s survival (as Prime Minister) is now wholly dependent upon the numerous currency traders across the world! These highly paid individuals are the people the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary truly admires! There is therefore the most poetic of judicial decisions forthcoming! For the woman who wants to live by market forces has her fate decided by same! This because these traders will be betting against Sterling! If Sterling sinks and interest rates rise the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary’s fate is sealed. IF Sterling strengthens and interest rates fall, she will survive – for the time being!
The Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary knows that Conservative MPs are a determined and ruthless bunch and the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary is now set to suffer the fate (metaphorically) of Julius Caesar!
A 33% poll lead for the Labour Party is something that Tory MPs will NOT tolerate! If Sterling fails to strengthen, expect therefore letters to go in to Sir Graham Brady Chairman of the 1922 Committee and Member for Altrincham and Sale West calling first for a change in the Committee’s rules allowing a vote of no confidence to be held in a sitting Prime Minister and also the rules by which a party leader is elected – from a combination of MPs and ordinary members to the MPs alone. Once the rules have been changed a vote of no confidence will be held and Mrs O’Leary’s time as Prime Minster will end! There will of course be no significant delay (and no campaign) as the Fortunate (for now) Mr Sunak is likely to be elected unopposed!
The suddenness of these events will be quite deliberate. This because Tory MPs will be determined to send a signal to the world’s currency and stock markets that the Unfortunate Mrs O’Leary was an unfortunate aberration and that the Fortunate (for now) Mr Sunak will bring things quickly back to normal!
Expect the Fortunate (for now) Mr Sunak to not go to the country until he has to (January 2025). This because as Doctor Johnson wrote all those years ago: “The prospect of being hanged in a fortnight concentrates a man’s mind most wonderfully!”