Above, the US Douglas A-26 C Invader located at Tamiami Executive airport was painted in Cuban Air Force colours for the military invasion of Cuba (Bay of Pigs) undertaken by the CIA-sponsored paramilitary group Brigade 2506 in April 1961.
That the sabotage of the two Nord Stream pipelines is a false flag operation carried out under Putin’s orders is something commonly accepted in Western capitals. Yesterday’s blog-post drew attention to the Kremlin already denouncing such an accusation as “…………..quite predictable and also predictably stupid…………..”
In his blog-post today (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/energy-to-many-questions/), Doctor North is being a little more circumspect but goes onto point out that to quote: “The types of seabed mine which could have been used have been around a long time, and have been widely exported to a number of Soviet and Russian client states. It would not be beyond the realms of possibility for a third party to acquire a number of these munitions to achieve the recent effects, without direct (or any) Russian involvement.”
What is also commonly accepted in Western capitals is that the physical disabling of the two Baltic pipelines leaves the pipelines – and the underground gas storage facilities – in Western Ukraine as Europe’s sole piped access to Russian gas. Were these facilities “taken out” with a low yield nuclear weapon then Europe would be heavily reliant on shipborne gas supplies.
We have already seen with Mrs O’Leary’s “Special Financial Operation” how markets can become easily “spooked”. Imagine how “spooked” they will become should Mr Putin use one or more nuclear weapons to destroy Ukraine’s gas export infrastructure!
As has been pointed out by economists, the Achilles heal of Mrs O’Leary’s “Special Financial Operation” is the price of gas. If the price sky rockets to stratospheric levels then her plans to cap the gas price will become utterly unaffordable.
The EU and the UK will be left with a stark choice: Continue to support Ukraine – as the USA will insist – or abandon all support and pressure the Ukrainian government to accept Russia’s terms!
Acceptance of Russia’s terms will quickly lead to a reduction in the gas price down to affordable levels. However although economically this “works”, diplomatically and politically for the EU and the UK it will be catastrophic!
The problem for those of us living in the UK is that Mrs O’Leary might be of a different opinion than her EU counterparts. There is another problem: the reaction of the USA to the use of a nuclear weapon by Russia.
As stated in yesterday’s blog-post, Putin is apparently “getting his ducks in a row”. Hold the sham referendums in those parts of Ukraine he controls. Disable the two Baltic pipelines. Formally annex the territories into the Russian Federation. After that? Possible issue an ultimatum to Ukraine demanding acceptance of the annexation and a demand that Ukraine cease attacking “Sovereign Russian Territory”. When Ukraine ignores the ultimatum and continues hostilities, make a formal declaration of war.
It is extraordinarily unlikely that Putin will escalate until all these preliminaries have been carried out.
Use of a nuclear weapon will most likely cause a complete collapse in the EU’s support for Ukraine. Expect Germany to fully assert herself at this point. Up to that point Germany had always let the French take the lead in terms of acting the Great Power” on the world stage with Germany taking a back seat. Faced with the prospect of nuclear war in Europe Germany’s politicians will fully asset themselves. This to the fury of the USA. NATO would effectively become a Dead Parrot at this point!
The critical aspect of all this is the USA’s reaction to such an event.
Apart from continuing it’s existing support for Ukraine (supplies or arms), were the USA to restrict itself to a diplomatic response the Democratic Party and the Biden administration will know that this will be electorally catastrophic for them. To use an Americanism; “They’ll be toast!”
Therefore the Biden administration is likely to delivery an actual military response – that is military action by US forces directly against Russia. In yesterday’s post, I speculated about the use of a low yield nuclear weapon in the form of a free fall B61 munition. In such a case the delivery aircraft would more than likely be a B-2 stealth bomber.
However, the use of a nuclear weapon is a crossing the Rubicon moment and President Biden and his advisers may have the USAF use a conventional munition instead. The B-2 can carry two of these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator
Were President Biden to order such an attack, he may well feel the need to issue an ultimatum with it: That any response by Russia will lead to the use by the USA of nuclear weapons.
Whilst all this is happening we have to realise that the currency markets and the stock markets will likely be closed as trading will have become too extreme.
The B-2 is a long range subsonic bomber and is based at USAF bases in the continental USA. The USAF would be perfectly able to carry out a retaliatory strike against Russia from these bases and if necessary have USAGF tanker aircraft refuel the aircraft en-route.
However: It has long been the USA’s doctrine to have a NATO or other ally alongside when it comes to military action. IF the Biden administration instructs the USAF to carry out such a mission it is a racing certainty that they will wish to have the B-2 fly from an airbase on the territory of a European NATO member. It will also be perfectly obvious to the Biden administration that no EU NATO member would countenance such a strike! It is also perfectly obvious that the Biden administration will ask the UK government to agree to the use of the USAF base at Upper Heyford (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Upper_Heyford)!
The UK has been described as “an unsinkable aircraft carrier”. This is EXACTLY how the USA regards the UK!
The Biden administration will know with absolute certainty that were Putin to call Biden’s bluff and retaliate, he will not retaliate against the continental USA but against a target or targets in the UK!
Putin of course would know that if he carried out a retaliatory strike against RAF Upper Heyford he would kill many USA citizens and destroy US assets. In these circumstances, Putin may respond with conventional missiles. He has these (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal). He has already used them against Ukraine.
Rumours in early February 2022 suggested that several MiG-31 interceptors armed with Kinzhal missiles were dispatched from Soltsy Air Base, Novgorod Oblast, to Chernyakhovsk Naval Air Base in Russia’s western Kaliningrad exclave. Russia’s Aerospace Force launched Kinzhal missiles on 19th February 2022. These missiles can strike targets in the UK from the skies above Kaliningrad. The missiles have been used in the present conflict in Ukraine. Like the V2 used by Hitler in WW2, they missiles cannot be stopped. Like the V-2, it’s accuracy is in question. Clearly the V-2 was an unguided missile.
There is for Putin a better UK target that RAF Upper Heyford however: “The Square Mile” in the City of London! Were Putin to carry out an attack with say half a dozen (non nuclear) Kinzhal missiles all targeted at “The Square Mile” the impact in terms of economic fallout would be catastrophic.
An attack against a NATO ally of course would mean that NATO would be treaty bound to come to the UK’s aid. Faced with nuclear war, it may well be the case that EU NATO members would not get involved.
Politically (on the basis that those of us living in the UK were still alive) it is almost certain that there would be calls for a National Government and it is likely that if Mrs O’Leary does not resign the King will take the unprecedented step of sacking her. The new Prime Minister is likely to be Sir Keir Starmer and the Deputy Prime Minster and Chancellor of the Exchequer will likely be Rishi Sunak. The Foreign Secretary will likely be Sir Ed Davey. The National Government will last until the end of the Parliament – January 2025. The cabinet will be drawn from senior Conservative (on the left of the party) and senior Labour (on the right of the party) and a couple of high profile Liberal Democrats. Do not be surprised if Caroline Lucas is Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs!