Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) wrote about the unpredictability of war. It has been said that truth is the first causality or war. I would suggest that it takes first equal place with “the plan”. The plan being that of the one starting the said war! In the case of Ukraine 2022, this is the Unfortunate Vladimir Putin.
That things are probably not going according to the Kremlin’s plan is I think borne out by the contribution to public knowledge by Doctor North today.
GOTO: https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-fighting-spirit/
Traditionally those starting a war plan on a quick war. The German term blitzkrieg (lightening war) has now entered the English language. Various despots have come unstuck this way when their quick war or “surgical strike” turns into a war of attrition.
I do not think Ukraine 2022 will turn out to be a war of attrition. I do however think that the Kremlin will have to commit a far greater level of forces and take a far higher level of causalities than they had planned for.
This is undeniably selfish and will be unreservedly condemned by many readers but the consequences of this war will have consequences far beyond south east Europe.
The approach of “the West” so far has been clear: Economic and diplomatic sanctions. It is perfectly clear that these sanctions have been extraordinarily effective. It is also perfectly clear that there is one sanction that has NOT been deployed and for obvious reasons – mutual self interest!
This of course is the European need for Russian oil and gas!
This is the ONE sanction that would wreck the Russian economy.
It would also wreck Europe’s!
Recently, the Unfortunate Putin rattled his nuclear tipped sabre. This rightly raised concerns across the world. There is another nuclear weapon that the Unfortunate Putin might use in desperation: Sell Russia’s oil and gas in the Rouble!
At the moment, most but NOT all traded commodities are carried out in the US $.
Below, a most useful Wikipedia page.
GOTO: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_traded_commodities
Those commodities not traded in the US $ are listed below:
Commodity/Contract Size/Currency/ Main Exchange
Palm Oil 1000 kg Malaysian Ringgit (RM) Bursa Malaysia
Wool 2500 kg AUD ($) ASX
Amber 1 kg Rub (-) Saint Petersburg Bourse
NB: Rubber 5000 kg US cents (¢) TOCOM – same currency.
IF the Unfortunate Putin reacted to the sanctions imposed on Russia by issuing a decree that ALL Russia’s oil and gas is traded via the Saint Petersburg Bourse using the Rouble the European nations (including the UK) would have a BIG decision to make!
At this point alarm bells will be ringing in every room in every room in the US government’s real estate!
President Biden will contact President Von Der Leyen imploring her to refuse this offer!
What will then happen is to be discovered BUT I would NOT be surprised if the Biden administration offers to supply the EU with oil and gas from US wells at a special subsidised price! This because the sky-rocketing oil and gas prices are infuriating many members of Europe’s public and causing great hardship for the poorest consumers.
Such an act will have differing but severe consequences for both Mr Putin and Mr Biden!
IF Europe stops buying Russia’s oil and gas it is curtains for the Russian economy and Mr Putin!
IF Mr Biden makes an Executive Agreement (which does NOT require ratification in the US Senate) with Frau Von Der Leyen to sell oil and gas to the EU at subsidised prices – which will mean the USA will either buy it at the market price from US suppliers and sell at a loss (born by the hard pressed US taxpayer) OR pass legislation to require oil and gas producers to sell their product to the US government at below market prices – Mr Biden’s already low level of popular support will sink even lower!
The BEST we can hope for IF these things come to pass is a coup d’état by Russia’s military leaders who would then make “the West” an offer it would be suicidal (for “the West”) to refuse:
A deal which would involve “the West”:
#1: recognising the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic as sovereign independent states.
#2: accept formal Russian annexation of the Ukrainian Black Sea provinces of Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia.
#3: formally undertaking that Ukraine will NEVER be offered membership of the EU, the EEA and NATO.
PS: I reckon that I should have entitled today’s post: Very dangerous times ahead!