In the 1980s when “Maggie” was at the height of her powers there was a cross party campaigning organisation called “Peace Through NATO”. It’s Chairman was a very well spoken Tory lady whose name I have forgotten. I have tried without success to find it’s logo on the internet.
Forward to 2024, I have a new constituency MP! He is Andrew George and a Liberal Democrat. I did NOT vote for him!
That I took an active part on the “Leave” side during the referendum of 2016 that will of course be no surprise!
It will also be remembered – which can be confirmed by going back to my blog-posts during the campaign – that I campaigned or a Brexit that meant re-joining EFTA and remaining in the EEA – the so called “Norway option”. This of course was derided by my fellow “Ukippers” as BRINO (Brexit In Name Only).
During the campaign, Andrew George was of course very much at the head of the “Remain” campaign in this constituency. I recall one public meeting at St. John’s Hall in Penzance around this time when in answer to a question UKIP’s Branch Chairman, Stuart Guppy, put to him, Andrew George referred to Stuart as being a member of the “Far Right”. This was ridiculous. Stuart was a Thatcherite Tory before he joined UKIP. In no way was Stuart “far right”.
However, Andrew George though wrong about Stuart was not a million miles away from the truth insofar as many on the radical EuroRealist wing of British politics are fond of supporting causes and persons that may not be in the best interests of the UK.
For instance, at a recent political protest rally held in Parliament Square where the protesters [peaceful and orderly] were addressed by such as Tommy Robinson and Lawrence Fox vocal support was given to the campaign of former President Donald Trump and the MAGA (Make American Great Again) campaign in the USA.
This could well be a case of British turkeys voting for an early Christmas!
Why?
Well, Mr Trump believes in keeping his [negotiating] cards very close to his chest. Getting fully detailed policy positions from Mr Trump is even harder than getting the same out of Sir Keir Starmer!
Mr Trump believes in the “art of the deal” and if re-elected will travel to Moscow and negotiate “man to man” with President Putin “a deal” for the settlement of Russia’s war (sorry “Special Military Operation”) on Ukrainian territory. He will then present Ukraine and the other European powers with a fait accompli – claiming for himself ALL the credit!
The DANGER here is that as a result of “the deal”, Mr Trump might decide that the USA will leave NATO! It would certainly be something Mr Putin would be seeking as part of his terms!
There are already calls from some of the “MAGA” for the USA to quit NATO and to focus it’s defensive posture on the Pacific. They argue that the USA should not accept a risk of nuclear attack from Russia were European NATO members to be attacked and that the USA nuclear deterrent be used to only defend the USA against a nuclear attack on it’s soil.
For the USA – in purely military terms – this makes sense if the the USA regards China and it’s client North Korea as the main threat. It is a classic case of ensuring that a war is not fought on two fronts. Were the USA able to concentrate most of it’s forces in the Pacific and not the Atlantic China’s position would be greatly disadvantaged.
The problem of that strategy would be a likely war in Europe!
Freed from the danger of a US nuclear strike, Mr Putin would feel emboldened to “recover” territory he feels is properly part of Russia: The republics of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia!
In these circumstances Europe’s two nuclear powers (France and the UK) would be faced with responding to any nuclear blackmail Mr Putin would make.
Now of course, we DO NOT KNOW what Mr Trump’s attitude and policy is about this!
However, we DO KNOW what Mr Biden’s (and presumably that of his successor Ms Harris) is!
Now of course, a certain Nigel Farage has opined about the strategy pursued by the Western Powers in relation to Eastern Europe and the expansion of the borders of the EU and NATO.
NB: Mr Farage has NEVER indicated anything other than the most severe criticism of Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine!
However, what is done is done and most of the former “Warsaw Pact” nations are now EU and NATO members along with Finland and Sweden.
We are where we are!
Of course, IF those MAGA members think that the USA could escape the negative consequences of a war across Europe including the use of nuclear weapons would not adversely affect – most significantly – the USA they are completely deluded!
President Reagan was right when he stated that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought!