Above, one of the sabotaged gas pipelines in the Baltic.
As so often, the works of William Shakespeare can be relied upon to provide words that reflect present day situations. Shakespeare was of course a brilliant and highly relevant political commentator and satirist of his time – the first Elizabethan age. Again, words this time from Henry IV. Part II (1597) can again be used:
And in the visitation of the winds,
Who take the ruffian billows by the top,
Curling their monstrous heads and hanging them
With deafening clamour in the slippery clouds,
That, with the hurly, death itself awakes?
Canst thou, O partial sleep, give thy repose
To the wet sea-boy in an hour so rude,
And in the calmest and most stillest night,
With all appliances and means to boot,
Deny it to a king?
Then happy low, lie down!
Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.
The attacks on the Nord Stream and pipelines is deeply concerning. Almost as concerning as the attacks on the German/Polish frontier post in August 1939 – which of course was perpetrated by the Nazis to enable them to blame Poland rendering Hitler the fig leaf he felt he needed to invade Poland.
Herewith a report from Reuters:
MOSCOW, Sept 28 (Reuters) – The Kremlin on Wednesday said claims that Russia was somehow behind a possible attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines were stupid, adding that the United States had opposed the pipelines and its companies had made big profits supplying gas to Europe.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a daily conference call with reporters that the incident needed to be investigated and the timings for repair of the damaged pipelines were not clear.
Asked about claims Russia might be behind the possible attack, Peskov said: “That’s quite predictable and also predictably stupid…………..” “This is a big problem for us because, firstly, both lines of Nord Stream 2 are filled with gas – the entire system is ready to pump gas and the gas is very expensive… Now the gas is flying off into the air. ………….” “Are we interested in that? No, we are not, we have lost a route for gas supplies to Europe. ………….” Then:
“We see the huge profits of the U.S. suppliers of liquefied natural gas, who increased their supplies many-fold to the European continent. ………….” “They are very, very interested in further receiving their super, super profits.”
Then we have this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2022/09/27/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1–2-says-former-polish-defense-minister/
Taken together, it is clear that Putin is seeking to construct a legend that, together with the formal incorporation of the Ukrainian provinces he seeks to annex into the Russian Federation can use to justify a dramatic escalation in his war (sorry – Special Military Operation) against Ukraine.
I would not be one bit surprised if Putin were not to issue a formal ultimatum (probably 72 hours) to Ukraine demanding that Ukraine withdraw it’s troops from what he will be declaring as sovereign Russian territory and to cease all attacks across the Ukrainian/Russian border. This together with the statement that failure to comply will result in a formal declaration of war between Russian and Ukraine.
Some BG readers may well ask, “What would be the point? Russia is already at war with Ukraine?”
My answer is that Putin has clearly carefully worked out this beforehand. He has called the invasion a “Special Military Operation”. Declaring war will turn the “Special Military Operation” (that Putin stated was to seek to stop neo-Nazi terrorist attacks on Russians living in Ukraine) into a war. It will also enable him to make threats against the NATO members that are supporting Ukraine with arms.
In his blog-post of 21st September, 2022, Dr. Richard North (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-escalation/) made sombre speculation about the use of low yield nuclear weapons to “take out” Ukraine’s gas storage facilities thus stopping the supply of gas to Europe. This would have the effect of wreaking EU economies whilst at the same time limiting the collateral damage of the attack or attacks. This of course is important to reduce the retaliation.
That retaliation would follow is certain. What is uncertain is what form the retaliation would take.
A nuclear response – even limited to keep causalities to a minimum would be catastrophic.
Of course, Putin is seeking to fracture the NATO response to his aggression. In this he is making good progress! We the USA to respond in a limited way the weapon of choice might be the B61 bomb (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb) that would be carried by a B-2 stealth bomber (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_B-2_Spirit). The question would be: Where and on what would a B61 be dropped!
It could be that Putin might realise that a zero response (that would of course be dependent upon the level of Russian causalities) would result in victory – for him! This because far from damaging the Russian economy, Russia’s military adventure and the resulting sky rocketing of the gas price – that is now often being sold in Roubles – has boosted the Russian economy. Far from costing Russian money, the “Special Military Operation” has helped the Russian economy!
Restraint shown by Putin to a US retaliatory strike – together with a threat to respond were the USA to follow up their initial response with a further one (recall Hiroshima and then Nagasaki) – would likely result in a complete collapse of the EU political response to the war and the EU caving in to the Russians. A UN brokered peace conference would doubtless take place where Ukraine would accept the Russian annexation of her territory with the EU nations recognising same. The quid pro quo being that Russia would not object to Ukraine joining the EU and NATO. This because the hike in gas and oil prices would wreck the EU economies – as it would of course wreck the UK’s economy!
Failure by the USA to respond would have catastrophic electoral consequences for the Biden administration. A response by the USA would have catastrophic electoral consequences for the Biden administration. Biden and the Democrats are in a No Win Situation.
Were all this to take place during the month of October, one can easily predict the result of the US mid term elections! Rout and landslide does not even being to describe the Democrat party’s defeat at the hands of the Republicans!
As to the UK, one can expect the Tory party – that can always be relied up on to look after it’s own interests first – would hold an emergency meeting to change it’s rules – again – resulting in yet another vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and a snap election – where only the MPs would decide the outcome – and Rishi Sunak would be elected as King Charles III’s 2nd Prime Minister!
Expect the return of Michael Gove to high office (Chancellor of the Exchequer?) if this comes about.