Today’s title is of course paraphrasing Sir Edward Grey’s famous remark to a friend on the ever of the First World War. The actual quote of course was “The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time…”
In his blog-post today (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-set-for-the-long-haul/), “North the Elder” describes the situation in Ukraine and suggests that the war will not be over quickly.
In his blog-post today (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/we-cant-afford-our-political-class-anymore/), “North the Younger” increasingly exasperated at the lunacy of the “climate change carry on” has typed out online a cri de cœur, which the BG fully endorses and which is reprinted below:
“The one thing our political class will never do is act in accordance with the needs and wishes of the public. They could scrap green taxes that add a third to our energy bills – but they won’t. They could get a grip on immigration and deport illegals – but they won’t. They could throw everything at new nuclear power stations, but they’ll build subsidy harvesting windmills. It’s not going to change until there is a broader realisation that our political class simply doesn’t care about us, and for as long as they are politically and financially insulated from the consequences of their choices, they will continue to fleece us and run the country into the ground.”
British Gazette comment: What we are witnessing insofar as the governments of the United Kingdom and Russia are concerned are two blunders of historic proportions.
They are very different blunders from two very different political societies. Both however have one thing in common: a fundamental miscalculation as to the effects of actions undertaken.
For Russia, President Putin has committed the blunder that many despots have committed in the past: Underestimating the military challenge in terms of the strength, resourcefulness and determination of the opposing forces AND, Calculating that the war (aka “Special Military Operation”) would be over quickly.
President Putin probably decided to plan for his “Special Military Operation” after President Biden threw in the towel in Afghanistan (aka “The Graveyard of Empires”).
He probably calculated that the sanctions “the West” would impose upon Russia would not cause too much of a problem as with a quick victory and an early settlement they would end. That President Putin has realised the hole he has dug for himself is borne out by early peace talks where a promise by Ukraine never to join NATO or the EU or the EEA would probably suffice.
Were NATO, the EU and the EEA prepared to be parties to a hexpartite treaty with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine to this effect the war could be over fairly quickly. Russia would withdraw it’s forces from Ukraine with President Putin claiming victory in having defeated “Nazi forces” – whom he will of course lay the blame for the destruction wrought!
But that probably will not happen.
Instead the war will drag on.
However, as the economic situation deteriorates in Russia, President Putin will want to share the suffering by refusing to supply gas and oil to Europe. He will of course still be able to sell the gas and oil to other nations! Furthermore, he may decide to sell these hydrocarbons by spot auction on the St. Petersburg bourse in roubles!
This will cause tremendous damage to the economies of all EU member states.
If any Britons think that the UK will not be so seriously affected by this then they are living on another planet!
I am fairly optimistic however that the disaster will not last for long!
Why?
Because despite all their flaws the member states of the EU ARE democracies.
When the governments of democracies mishandle the governance so catastrophically the people protest in very large numbers!
These governments will fall and new governments will be elected in their place!
IF Boris the Buffoon persists in his economically and politically (for the Tories) suicidal policy of “Net Zero”, then the Tories too will suffer a catastrophic electoral defeat. IF the Labour Party fails to perform a similar volte-face on the issue of “climate change” and REVERSE it’s present policies it will fail to take advantage of any electoral victory handed to it and following it’s exit from office the field will be cleared for other political parties.
The one party we can confidently expect the Liberal Democrats to follow the late Groucho Marx ‘s comic witticism being; “Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them… well, I have others. ”
As for Ukraine, I expect a settlement eventually. Expect the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic to be accepted and recognised as independent states and members of the United Nations. Expect the southern portions of the provinces of Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa to be ceded to Russia cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea and leaving her land-locked. Expect a de-facto demographic partition between those Ukrainians wishing to live under Russian influence and those Ukrainians who do not. Expect the rump landlocked Ukraine to gain expedited entry into the European Union and immediate entry into NATO.
As for the UK, I expect a volte-face Labour or Liberal Democratic party to enter into a “new partnership” with the European Union! Do NOT expect whatever party is in office reversing Brexit in the sense of rejoining the European Union! That is politically impossible for any UK political party and in any event, the European Union would not want the UK to rejoin!
However: They will welcome the UK rejoining the European Economic Area – which would mean rejoining EFTA. They will also welcome a comprehensive Customs Union between the UK and the EU! The most difficult thing about drafting the comprehensive Customs Union will be making the treaty NOT to appear to be what it will be: the UK adopting all EU regulations in respect of trade and virtually everything else but with absolutely no say! In other words, it is not just Ukraine (or a good part of it) that looses it’s sovereignty – so too will the UK!