There’s a saying: “Clocks run on future time on the Street.”
The street in question is Wall Street and the stocks are those traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
It means that the price of a stock is based on the perception of how anticipated and expected future events will affect the company whose stock is of interest. These future events could increase or decrease the company’s value and thus the stock price. The crucial aspect is this: People cannot know the future. They can only guess! This is why investing in the stock market is regarded as a gamble by many.
There is a way however of shortening the odds: It is known as “insider trading” and it is illegal!
Insider trading is where a person is in possession of privileged information that will affect the price of the stock if known. An obvious example is where a company is about to be the subject of a takeover offer from another company. It is generally understood that when the market becomes aware of the T/O bid the price of the company to be taken over will rise. Any person buying stock in this company BEFORE this information becomes known will see a rapid increase the the stock price. They will then be able to sell the stock and make a quick profit.
Thus it is that Information is the KEY to successful decision making!
I have a friend who is a steadfast Labour voter. They will never vote for a Conservative candidate. This friend is insistent that the Unfortunate Sunak call the election ASAP so the Unfortunate Starmer can takeover as PM.
This friend did not like my suggestion that the Unfortunate Sunak should hold the election at the end of January 2025!
The next election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025, with Parliament being dissolved no later than 17 December 2024. The date falls on a Tuesday, and there is a convention that British general elections are held on Thursdays, but this is not a strict requirement of the law. The election of 1931 was held on a Tuesday but all UK general elections held since 1935 have been held on Thursdays. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
My friend asked a one word question: “WHY?”
This:
The FACT of the matter is this: The UK of 2024 is not the UK of 1924! In 1924 the UK was a world power with the existence of the British Empire. In 2024 this is no longer the case. The UK is a middle weight power.
In 1924 the US Presidential (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_United_States_presidential_election) which saw Calvin Coolidge elected as the 30th President of the United States was not a significantly major event for UK politics. However, the 2024 US Presidential Election will be (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election).
The US will go to the polls on Tuesday November 5th 2024 and the successful candidate will be inaugurated on Monday January 20th 2025.
This means that should the Unfortunate Sunak run out the clock and face his reckoning with the electorate on Tuesday 28th January 2025 then the voters will have had eight days in which they could observe the goings on across the pond!
These events WILL be significant. They could be VERY significant!
The FACT is that the politics of the USA have become even more polarised than usual and indeed many state toxic.
There is a possibility that Mr Trump may will by a significant margin in the electoral college and that Mr Biden will have a majority in the popular vote.
The significance lies in here: https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/after-election-day-the-basics-of-election-certification/
IF a victory by the victorious candidate was denied certification then the USA (and inter-alia the world) would be entering uncharted territory.
IMHO the UK political establishment owe it to the UK electorate to allow an environment where they can decide which parliamentary candidate they vote for having been informed of what is going on across the pond.
It will also allow the victorious PM to take this situation into account.