Above, an Imperial War Museum photograph of allied soldiers on the Western Front.
Wise words have been written by Dr. North in his blog-post today (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-targeted-strikes/): “Long experience over many decades should tell us that this is a race no one can win. For every measure, there is invariably a counter measure and if both sides are intent on raising the stakes – whether for good reasons or bad – the outcome can only be tragedy.
Sooner of later, there will have to be talks between the two warring parties, with the serious intent of ending the conflict. Some might be thinking that Ukraine needs to be asking itself how much more damage it can sustain before it capitalises on its military successes and turns them into negotiating capital.”
The Great War was one of those great historic tragedies. Following Germany’s advance being checked at the Marne in 1914, the war developed into a war of attrition. In 1916, President Woodrow Wilson sought to act as a mediator and “honest broker” to bring the hostilities to an agreed end. Both sides however had shed so much blood and treasure that they felt that a negotiated peace was impossible and the war ground on until the Armistice in November 1918.
Today with the Russo-Ukraine War (aka “Special Military Operation”) we are in a similar death spiral: Both sides cannot settle the matter peaceably as both sides have lost so much.
The huge danger for ALL humanity of course is the dreadful aspect of nuclear weapons.
IT is clear that the Western Powers have very limited influence over the belligerents. They could cease supporting Ukraine in which case their war effort will quickly falter. I do not advocate that. However, it is VITAL to avoid direct military between NATO forces and Russian forces. A war between NATO and Russia MUST be avoided.
This means that IF Putin is so grotesquely reckless as to use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, the nuclear powers of NATO MUST NOT respond with any direct attack on Russia – even with conventional weapons.
Should Putin cross this particular Rubicon, China will be extremely concerned. This will be an opportunity that NATO should seize with both hands and should seek to mobilise world opinion to put diplomatic and economic measures against Russia and Belarus.
Of course there will be a huge political cost to this – for the governments of NATO members – particularly the USA. President Biden will be lambasted as weak!
IF Putin follows the military logic as described by Dr. North and myself with respect to Ukraine’s gas storage and transmission facilities, then the economic and energy disruption will be severe. So far as the UK is concerned the gas price would likely sky-rocket, Sterling would drop through the floor. Interest rates will go through the roof which will make Mrs O’Leary’s flag-ship energy price protection scheme completely unaffordable for the Treasury and of course the cost of mortgages will cripple many borrowers. This in turn will threaten the stability of financial institutions.
In such a panic, the back bench Tory MPs might conspire against Mrs O’Leary and stage a Westminster Palace coup to “Bring Back Boris”!
Were they to do so, Mrs O’Leary may very well offer her resignation to the King as his first Prime Minister. It is within the outside bounds of possibility however that the King would REFUSE her resignation and ask her to stay on as Prime Minister in a temporary capacity whilst a General Election is held. Given that Mrs O’Leary would no longer be the Leader of the Conservative Party, her replacement could spend all their time campaigning which she could spend all her time governing. This however would inevitably be a very dangerous move on the King’s part for the constitutional convention has been that the monarch must invite the politician who is able to command a majority in the House of Commons to form a government and that the decision to call a General Election is the monarch ACTING ON THE ADVICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER.
What raises the possibility that the King MIGHT call a general election is that given the state of the opinion polls, the King might see this as a good move as the UK’s position will be in such a serious crisis that a government with a majority of landslide proportions would be required for the new government to take the necessary difficult decisions necessary. Then there is of course the issue of Net Zero.
OF course, IF President Biden unilaterally (without consulting or informing his NATO allies beforehand) decides to carry out a nuclear reprisal against Russia then “all bets are off”!
I’ve expressed this fear before and it deserves repetition; that Biden may well use a USAF base in UK from which the B-2 aircraft would operate in an attempt to cause the inevitable Russian response to strike the UK and not the USA – for it would be politically easier for Biden to cease the escalation if it were just British lives lost and not American lives.