In his blog-post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86647), the excellent and learned Dr. North draws his readers attention to the curious seeming existence of two planets; Planet Earth and Planet Brexit.
Yesterday two committees of the House of Commons interviewed two men on the subject of Brexit. One, David “Dimwit” Davis received much publicity. The other Sir Ivan Rogers (no relation!) received little.
Since the historic Brexit result was announced on Midsummer’s Day 2016, Dr. North has been flagging up the dire consequences of a “no deal” Brexit.
As time has passed Dr. North appears to have become on occasion somewhat exasperated at the seeming stupidity of the politicians arguing that a “no deal” Brexit is anything other than a complete disaster!
Dr. North’s research is authoritative, detailed and intricate, and the logic of his arguments is powerful.
However, one is forced to consider that since the consequences of a “no deal” Brexit would be so awful and so severe who would seriously consider it?
Now there are some who suggest that there might be those who would seek a “no deal” Brexit in order to bring about a stock market crash, a Sterling crisis and a dramatic slump in the UK (particularly London) property market in order to make “buying opportunities” available.
The problem with this is that this is seriously illegal and because of the international nature of the offences, any persons involved would leave themselves open to extradition to face the criminal justice system in the USA.
The USA deals savagely with multi-billion dollar fraud. As the unfortunate Mr Madoff has discovered! Furthermore, whilst UK prisons are understaffed, overcrowded, dangerous and violent places, US prisons are more so!
So we are forced to consider that what we are looking at insofar as the Dimwit is concerned is a charade. A gigantic confidence trick.
The FACT is that Dimwit’s statements are so ridiculous and ill-informed that any concerned businessman should realise that Dimwit is talking nonsense and upon further enquiry is likely to be assured that there is no need to worry about a collapse of the economy and that the situation will be resolved satisfactorily.
Thus we expect a decision to be forced upon the UK government by the EU. This might be in the form of three choices:
1. Continue with Brexit and face the inevitable prospect of a “no deal” Brexit at 11:00PM on Friday 29th March 2019.
2. Accept an offer from the European Council 27 to suspend indefinitely or for an extended period (some years?), Brexit to allow for the negotiations to complete.
3. Accept an offer from the European Council 27 to revoke Article 50.
This will of course put three cats amongst a whole set of pigeons!
Herewith a LEGAL point.
The ONLY choice Madame Mayhem can make without seeking statutory authority is choice #1.
This is because choices #2 and #3 have the effect of amending, suspending and/or repealing laws and this is something the Sovereign (whose powers Madame Mayhem exercises) CAN NOT DO without the consent of Parliament.
Faced with these three choices, Madame Mayhem may resort to a second referendum on this issue.
Generally, referendums are binary choices – Yes or No – such as, “Do you want the UK to leave the EU?”
In the case of three choices the referendum SHOULD be held using the Alternative Vote.
The British Gazette would not be at all surprised to witness Mr Tusk make such an offer following the EU’s European Council meeting in mid December.
Expect a second referendum early in the New Year!