OK, Prime Minister Starmer, President Zelenskyy and President Macron are not kings but they are from orient far when it comes to visiting Washington DC as the literal definition of “orient” is “situated in or belonging to the east” thus, oriental.
The potential meeting of these three heads of government visiting President Trump might become one of the most significant visits between heads of government since the Yalta conference of 1945.
You see, since Mr Trump has de-facto realigned the USA to a position favouring Russia and not Ukraine and NATO, European leaders have been reacting to this radical development. Some such as President Macron have recognised the significance and are making plans accordingly. Keir Starmer however is hoping for either a change in direction from Mr Trump or if not, to limit the damage until a newly elected Democratic American president takes office in just under 4 years time, or in the hope that Mr Trump provides enough motivation for him and his sidekick Mr Vance to be impeached and removed from office bring in a replacement who will restore the status quo ante Trump!
In this forlorn hope Keir Starmer is joined by the vast majority of the British political establishment for the three main parties (Conservative/Labour/Liberal Democrat) have based the UK’s defence, foreign and security policy on the basis of the infamous “Special Relationship”.
To those who doubted that there was a special relationship, I can confirm there was. Note the past tense! It was essentially built around the “Five Eyes” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes) and nuclear defence co-operation (https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ldselect/ldintagr/20/20.pdf).
You can bet your bottom US $/GB £/EU € that the British establishment have been left reeling by Trump’s actions! Many will be in a state of shock and with many in a state of denial. This is NOT a stinging criticism but a very very mild one as many will have lived their professional lives on the basis of these arrangements. Between the 1970s and the 1980s this included Moi!
That Europe faces a very serious situation is beyond doubt. We will be able to judge the extent of the seriousness by the outcome of the so-called “peace negotiations” that will be held between Trump and Putin.
It MIGHT be the case that Putin will insist on bilateral negotiations between Russia and the USA the negotiations of which will put a proposed “Peace Treaty” to Ukraine that will take the form of an ultimatum.
I fear that Trump and Putin may propose the following “peace terms”:
– Ukraine cedes the oblasts of Crimea, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhya to Russia. (Putin might even go as far as demanding Mykolayiv oblast).
– Ukraine will become a demilitarised state possessing only security forces to maintain civil order. Ukraine will be only permitted military transport aircraft and maritime patrol aircraft lacking ASW capability (for coastguard/SAR purposes) and vessels for customs and coastguard purposes only.
– Ukraine will be forbidden from forming any military alliance with NATO or any other European state other than Belarus and Russia.
– No reparations will be levied by either belligerent party on the other.
– All sanctions lifted on Russia.
– The treaty contains a “non-aggression” pact between Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.
– 30,000 UN Peacekeeping troops from non-aligned nations from Africa and Asia shall be based to provide a security guarantee.
– New Ukrainian elections will be held under UN supervision – the supervisors being from the same non-aligned nations from Africa and Asia providing troops.
IF these onerous terms are forced upon the Ukrainians by Trump then Europe will be put on notice that Russia will invade Ukraine on or shortly after 2029 IF Trump is no longer POTUS (which would require a third term)!
What this will mean is that Europe will have but four more years (maybe five) to re-arm!
It is likely that Russia will subvert the elections and these will result in a pro-Russian president, government and legislature!
This of course will be Trump’s legacy!
The disappointment for Trump will be that his conduct will have been so grotesque that it is difficult to see how the Nobel Peace Prize Committee (https://www.nobelprize.org/organization/the-norwegian-nobel-committee/) could possibly award it to him!
What would Russia’s “casus belli” for a second invasion be?
Presumably subsequent elections that result in a non pro Russian president/government/legislature!