Good partisan advice for the Tories following the recent election débâcle comes from an unusual (for them) source: A certain Mr Gerard “Gerry” Adams, TD no less!
The advice he gives is partisan, but then who would expect anything less!
Mr Adams warns Madame Mayhem that alliances with “Orange politicians” rarely ends well – for parties other than the “Orange party” that is!
Looking at the political situation at Westminster in purely political terms then the Tories best LONG TERM bet would be to not make a deal with the DUP, put forward a Queen’s Speech and challenge all MPs from parties other than the Tories to vote it down.
This of course would put the ball well and truly in the court of The Right Honourable Arlene Foster PC MLA Leader of the Democratic Unionist Party! The lady would have a decision to make! You see the mainstream media are, at those times when they comment on the situation, suggest that Madam Mayhem is in a WEAK position and that Mrs Foster is in a STRONG position. This is NOT the case. It is or is not however the case insofar as Madame Mayhem may or may not know this!
You see, were Madame Mayhem to exploit the strength of her position, she would present Mrs Foster with something of a invidious choice! It would be back me or sack me! With no offer of reward either way. You see, Mrs Foster’s party the DUP has already won ALL the seats that it is going to or ever could do! Therefore another general election for the DUP can bring NO further reward! This situation is of course in stark contrast to Madame Mayhem’s situation!
What then would Mrs Foster have to gain from voting down a Queen’s speech?
Answer nothing!
What would the consequences be for Mrs Foster were the DUP to vote down a Queen’s Speech?
In a word: BAD!
You see the result would be that Dear Old Comrade Corbyn would find himself in 10 Downing Street!
Now, for the DUP – given Comrade Corbyn’s comments on “The Troubles” in the past – that would be very bad news! Very bad news indeed!
However, paradoxically for the defeated Madame Mayhem and the Tory party this would be GOOD NEWS!
You see, Brexit is a POISON CHALICE!
Here is a FACT: Brexit is going to cost more and will produce no economically tangible rewards for DECADES!
Here is another FACT: The political party occupying the position of Her Majesty’s Government is going to be punished and punished most severely by a vengeful electorate for this!
Here is yet another FACT: Brexit is a classic NO WIN situation! It is truly a case of being damned if they do and damned if they don’t! If the governing party proceeds with Brexit they are doomed to electoral oblivion! If the governing party aborts Brexit they are doomed to electoral oblivion!
Here is yet another FACT: If at THIS LATE STAGE the governing party proceeds with Flexcit, aka “the Norway Option” they will still have to settle the bill the EU will hand them! Promising to hand over £30 billion over 7 years – NOT £100 billion all at once – will assist in their defeat!
Thus Madame Mayhem’s choices are stark!
The lone Tory smiling face following the recent election débâcle of course was that of The Right Honourable George Gideon Oliver Osborne PC, CH, Editor of the London Evening Standard!
Mr Osborne completely failed to hide his glee when appearing on the TV, declaring that Madame Mayhem was “a dead woman walking” and it was merely a case of how long the unfortunate lady would spend on “death row”!
Mr Osborne is of course correct!
Madame Mayhem’s choices are deeply invidious! They relate to the timing of her appointment with the [political] scaffold! Does she climb into the tumbrel now or does she postpone it!
The argument for an early appointment with Madame la Guillotine is that she will be limiting the sacrifice to herself and her immediate cohort of MP’s. Doubtless she would quote Sydney Carton before the blade falls!
You see, whilst the Tories won 43% of the popular vote and Labour won 40%, long term the demographics would appear to be BAD for the Tories and GOOD for Labour. This is because of the changing nature of the UK’s population. If added to that we see the high youth turnout at the recent election repeated, then the outlook for the Tories is dire! This is because the rising demogarphic is from communities who are predominantly Labour voters!
The ONLY long term chance the Tories have is to maneuver Dear Old Comrade Corbyn into 10 Downing Street and thus hand him the Poison Chalice that is Brexit!
Thus when Labour makes a “complete Horlicks” of it they the Tories will be able to say – “we would have made a successful job of Brexit!”
This of course would be a LIE!
But then there would be no way of proving that!
You see, to remain relevant the Tories need to gain votes amongst the new demographic and that is something they are NOT doing. Most of the Tory vote is “white” and Christian. And those numbers are falling. Rapidly.
The ONLY way the Tories can stay relevant in the future is for Labour to fall down so badly on the job that such will persuade a critical numbers of the growing demographic to vote Tory.
The FACT is that the UK is changing and changing FAST. Those of us alive in twenty years time will not recognise the country we once knew.
That is a FACT!