The pendulum swings like the pendulum do! Really???????????????

Above, Robert Trelford McKenzie (11 September 1917 – 12 October 1981) was a Canadian professor of politics and sociology, and a psephologist (one who does statistical analysis of elections). He is perhaps best known in Britain as one of the main presenters of the BBC’s General Election programmes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_McKenzie_(psephologist)).

It is generally assumed by the mainstream media that the UK 2024 General Election is “done and dusted” and is all over – bar the voting!

That the Labour Party will gain an overwhelming majority and that the Conservatives will be reduced to little over 100 MPs (or even below 100) is a given.

Submitting the following results:

Conservative 20%

Labour 47%

Liberal Democrat 13%

Green 10%

Reform UK 10%

to this website (https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament?election=2019nb&CON=20&LAB=47&LD=13&GRN=10&RefUK=10#UnitedKingdom)

I got the following results:

Labour 425

Conservative 123

Liberal Democrat 35

Reform UK 0

Green 1

SNP 45

Plaid Cymru 1

I would suggest that Clacton is chalked up as win for Reform UK and thus the Conservative’s numbers are reduced by one!

In his blog-post today (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/politics-struggling-in-the-dark/), my friend Dr. Richard North is of the opinion that the polls may be very wrong and are not projecting what might take place on 4th July 2024.

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