All eyes were on Mrs O’Leary at Noon. For her it was indeed, High Noon! For her it was not the “Gunfight at the O.K. Corral” but something altogether more subtle – and less violent!
There had been speculation about the famous “triple lock”. For those young readers who do not know this is a yearly update of the “old age pension” by the highest of three variables; the rate of inflation, the average increase in wages or 2.5%. It is the October figures that are used to uprate in the April of the following year. Inflation has been recorded at 10.1%. wage increases at 5.4% – which means that old age pensioners will see a 10.1% increase in their pensions and not 5.4% or 2.5%.
Mrs O’Leary was clear in her answer to Mr Ian Blackford. It would be 10.1%. Mr Blackford either misheard or experienced a momentary hearing loss for his response appeared not to recognise Mrs O’Leary’s answer – so she repeated it.
Mrs O’Leary was opaque however on the issue of increasing welfare payments by the same measure. This is something we will have to bide our time until Hairshirt Hunt announces things on Halloween!
The FACT of the matter is this: Mrs O’Leary knows that if she has any chance of holding onto her job, the triple lock has to stay! This because Tory MPs know that pensioners constitute the major demographic in their constituencies. This because it is not only the total number of a group of voters – it is the propensity of that group to go to the polling station! It is this FACT that ensured that the UK left the EU! This because the 24-30s who were heavily for Remain did not turn out in the numbers necessary to counter the votes of the over 50s!
By announcing at PMQs that the triple lock will be maintained the PM has stamped her authority over “Hairshirt Hunt” who will know that he has virtually no support on the back benches for the use of either of the two lower metrics! Had Hairshirt been allowed to decide on the issue I reckon he would have opted to increase pensions by the rate of wages: 5.4% Increasing by only 2.5% would have been disastrous in terms of the opinion polls!
Of course Mrs O’Leary is very far from the edge of the wood! There is the matter of the energy price support after April 2023! This however is an unknown and unknowable quantity. In fact it might be a moot point for if President Putin “presses the button” and President Biden or President Harris responds by “pressing their button” and matters escalate out of control!
Working on the basis that we are all still in the land of the living in May 2023 it might be that Mrs O’Leary leaves #10 at that point! Most commentators however think that she will be gone long before then!
It appears that the only thing that is keeping her in office is the inability – so far – of Tory MPs to decide upon her successor!
Tory MPs have to be aware of two things:
#1: Boris the Buffoon is popular with the Tory members.
#2: Boris the Buffoon is the ONLY MP who can lay claim to a mandate as it was he that led the Tories at the 2019 General Election! Were the Tories to decide on an MP other than the Buffoon there is the danger that the King MIGHT refuse to play along and call a General Election!
This area of doubt may be enough to keep Mrs O’Leary in office (but not in power) until January 2023!