The Buddha’s famous quote is used for the title of today’s post because as Doctor Richard North points out in his blog-post today (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/politics-out-of-his-depth/) the UK of 2024 is a “diverse nation”. Dr North describes the perilous state of British society – that should be societies – today. Although he makes no mention of it, I am sure that the date has not escaped his notice – the Ides of March!
Although all enveloping, Buddha’s statement is very true as in most cases, people don’t know all the facts of any given situation. The present government of virtue signalling opportunists are no different from their predecessors when they keep great swaths of policy secret. Governments across the world have always acted like this!
Furthermore governments inherit the situations created by their predecessors and have to deal with what they are presented: They always spare no effort to heap the blame for the negative aspects situation they inherit on their predecessors and always claim ALL the credit for the positive aspects they inherit!
When asked by ITV News West Country whether he was preparing to call a snap election to coincide with the local elections, the prime minister said: “There won’t be a general election on that day.” Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/14/rishi-sunak-rules-out-general-election-may-local-elections
Having suggested that there could well be a GE on that day my response is to paraphrase the late Mandy Rice-Davies: MRDA – “Well he would, wouldn’t he?”, commonly referred to as Mandy Rice-Davies Applies (shortened to MRDA), the British political phrase and aphorism used as a retort to a self-interested denial.
To use another political phrase and aphorism: “A week is a long time in politics”, and it is twelve days from the 14th to the 26th of March!
It is said that politicians seek power. Many do but self serving virtue signalling opportunists tend to seek office not power and for many Tories they desperately wish to ensure that failing a return to government (which many now view as being nearly as unlikely as winning the lottery) the party MUST retain it’s position as His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition!
In the British political system the party known as His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition has a set of specific privileges afforded it. Privileges that the parties that come third, fourth and fifth do not have! In the age of mass media, this is crucially important.
As outlined yesterday, the problem for the Tories is existential. Whichever party is in power it is going to have to deal with some serious challenges:
British politicians have since the end of the Great War looked across the Atlantic to draw conclusions about the politics of the USA. This is because that since the end of the Great War, US foreign and domestic policies have had a great influence here.
The USA is not in a very good place at the moment! The elections of 2024 are going to be some of the most divisive in their recent history. Furthermore there are going to be a number of other candidates who are going to garner a higher number of votes than many previous such candidates.
Like the UK, the USA uses the First Past the Post system. However they call it the “Two Party system” – because the system works well when there are two candidates but badly when there are three or more.
The difference between FPP and PR (Proportional Representation) has been explained very well by the leading Tory, The Right Honourable Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg the Member for North East Somerset.
Sir Jacob explains that whereas with PR the formation of the governing coalition takes place after the election (in the traditional “smoked filled rooms”) with FPP the governing coalition is formed before the election by the consensuses that have been established in the two leading parties (Conservatives and Labour). Sir Jacob would have you believe that the FPP is the better system because the electorate chose the coalition they prefer in the election by voting for the Conservatives of Labour whereas with PR the coalition is decided by the politicians who happen to be elected.
Given a choice, many would opt for PR! However, you see Sir Jacob’s problem: In order to be relevant the Tories MUST be His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition if they fail to be the government!
IF after the election, Sir Jacob is one of the few who retains his seat but finds that the Liberal Democrats are His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition he will be able to observe first hand just how quickly the left leaning Liberal Democrats can move to the centre right! Quicker than an English Electric Lightening or a Boeing F-15 on full afterburners! This is because the Liberal Democrats like the Liberals and the Social Democrat parties before them have long and painful experience of being the minor parties!
Be in no doubt! The Right Honourable Sir Edward Davey, FRSA, the Member for Kingston and Surbiton is the consummate opportunist! Sir Edward knows how the FPP system works as well as Sir Jacob and Sir Edward will know that if the Liberal Democrats want to assert their status as one of the main two parties they have to replace the Tories. This will mean move towards the Reamainer/Remoaner Tory left. Sir Edward will be helped in his endeavour by such as Sir Jacob who will himself move very quickly to embrace the policy platforms of Reform, Reclaim and UKIP.
It appears that Sir Jacob’s tailor of choice is Henry Poole of Saville Row (https://henrypoole.com/). Sir Jacob understands many things and one thing he understands is that Sir Edward is as skilled a cutter of political policies to fit a particular manifesto as any of Henry Poole’s cutters are with a length of Donegal tweed (https://www.magee1866.com/en/Handwoven-and-Powerwoven-Donegal-Tweed–Magee-1866/cc-20.aspx) to fit him!
The rump Tories (supported by Reform, Reclaim and UKIP) will campaign for the UK to remove itself from the ECHR and the various UN Treaties that govern refuges and migration. They will begin a “War on Woke”. This will of course alienate left wing Tories who regard it as important that their party not be called the “Nasty party”.
Sir Edward will be assisted by an unusual helper: President Donald Trump!
You see, President Trump – the likely POTUS in 2025 – MIGHT make an accommodation with President Putin. Putin MIGHT be given more or less a free hand in Europe in exchange for Putin agreeing not to assist, ally or support:
#1: The Chinese and #2: The Iranians.
In return ALL US sanctions removed for Russia, with the USA leaving the military part of NATO resulting in the EU and the UK being placed in a parlous situation.
Furthermore the Chinese will realise that the USA will be able devote their military might to defending Taiwan!
The Chinese would not be keen on precipitating military action were the USA guaranteed that they would not have to fight a war on two fronts!
One of the things that Trump MIGHT do is to place “difficulties” for the UK in retaining it’s D5 Trident missiles. The United States Navy no longer needed all 18 Ohio-class submarines, so it converted four of the boats – Ohio, Michigan, Florida and Georgia – into guided-missile submarines (SSGNs). The Trident missiles were removed, and 22 silos were converted to each carry seven Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles. Doubtless the USA would offer this to the UK so the Dreadnought SSBNs can each carry a total of 84 cruise missiles.
The Unfortunate Sir Keir Starmer will be placed in a dreadful situation! The UK will be forced into two invidious choices:
To become “non aligned” – a route that will be adopted by the Irish Republic or to retain full membership of the Western European Union.
Faced with withdrawal of US support the EU members will re-introduce conscription. There will be pressure for the UK to follow!
Sir Jacob may well state on his TV programme on GB News that he would hope to remain seated on the government benches after the general election but with a Trump victory he MIGHT secretly be wishing to sit on the opposition benches!
Sir Jacob will also know that notwithstanding his many virtues, Mr Sunak is not a convincing Prime Minister and he will also know that despite his many, many failings Mr Johnson will make a superb Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition!