Above, NOT Yvette Cooper! Below, Yvette Cooper addressing the UN Security Council (https://youtu.be/HUFzQ0dIsjk [full video]).
We are approaching the end of September. October beckons. In the northern hemisphere that means that winter is on it’s way. Currently, Ukraine is enjoying some success in it’s targeting of Russian oil refineries and oil export port facilities.
Ukraine and Russia are involved in a conflict that has some remarkable parallels with the Western Front of the Great War. Namely, the front line is largely static – there is some movement (generally in Russia’s favour but extremely marginal) on the front line. Russia however has suffered enormous losses of men and materiel and the attacks on her oil and gas infrastructure is causing great economic stress. Come a hard winter and we could see Russia break before the Spring of 2026.
You see, what started as a planned “Blitzkreig” by Germany – a rapid advance through Belgium and defeat of France within 60 days and thus enabling Germany’s might to be turned against Russia (it was accepted that Russia required 60 days to fully mobilise her forces) – did not happen. German forces were checked at the Marne and the conflict became a War of Attrition.
Wars of Attrition generally end in one way: Defeat through economic collapse and materiel/resource deprivation. This was the fate suffered by Imperial Germany in November 1918 and could possibly be the fate of Putin’s Russia in February/March 2026.
However: The Unfortunate Mr Putin has no survivable way out of this conflict other than one: Victory for Russia. He therefore has every reason to press on until the very bitter end.
It appears that President Putin is so desperate he is prepared to adopt a strategy that will have one of two outcomes:
#1: An escalation of the conflict to one with NATO OR:
#2: Intimidation of NATO to the extent that NATO reduces it’s support for Ukraine to no more than diplomatic and economic sanctions cutting off all military aid.
Key to this will of course be the response of President Trump!
Readers will recall in previous posts in the run up to the US Presidential Election in 2024, I stated that for the UK, that election was going to be the most significant one since 1940.
History has proved me right!
President Vladimir Putin is well aware of this and Mr Putin understands that being displaced from office will NOT be along the lines experienced by former Prime Minister Liz Truss!
President Trump has tried hard to pressure Ukraine and to accommodate President Putin as far as he can – to the extent of causing him to suffer significant criticism and humiliation at the hands of the Democrats and their activists in the USA. To date, President Putin has refused to take advantage of the various “off ramps” that President Trump has prepared for him. The FACT of the matter is that for the Unfortunate Mr Putin, there is no scenario in which Mr Putin takes advantage of such an “off ramp” and enjoys a happy and peaceful retirement!
IF Mr Putin continues to escalate by military incursions into NATO airspace and waters he is making a huge gamble! He is gambling that were NATO to invoke Article 5 and to enter the conflict the USA would NOT mobilise it’s forces and act under Article 5.
The problem for NATO is that not only is the USA by far the largest military power in NATO, it uniquely has a force level of logistic and strategic reconnaissance that is NOT possessed by any other NATO member in adequate quantities. In other words, whilst NATO’s European members can effectively fight in “police operations” such as striking targets in Yemen, they cannot effectively fight Russia WITHOUT active US participation!
Thus it is necessary for NATO’s European members to “turn the other cheek” to any Russian provocation and to avoid getting drawn into the conflict at all costs!
Such provocations are highly likely to increase in number and severity. This because Mr Putin is trying to provoke NATO’s European members into a military response or to intimidate them into ending their materiel support for Ukraine.
The FACT is that NATO’s European Members CAN NOT AFFORD to gamble on President Trump’s adoption of Article 5.
IF NATO’s European Members enter the conflict WITHOUT the USA the result will be disastrous and possibly cataclysmic!