William Jefferson Clinton (above) served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001.
Today’s title is a well known comment about winning elections. One that those around the Unfortunate Mr Trump appear to be dismissive of.
The Unfortunate Mr Trump has one particular virtue, one not possessed by many British and European politicians: The man likes to make his intentions well known! This is a great benefit as voters will have a clear idea of what to expect if they vote for him and he gains office! Which of course, he did!
The Unfortunate Mr Trump told Fox News and anybody else who cared to listen, that he would place tariffs on goods imported into the USA. Not only that, the man cited the reasons: That “America” had been “ripped off” by “foreign countries” and that American manufacturing jobs had been exported to these “foreign countries” (principally China) and that The Unfortunate Mr Trump’s plan was to bring back these manufacturing jobs and thereby “Make America Great Again”!
Oh Dear!
You see, the Unfortunate Mr Trump and his acolytes (Messrs. Vance, Bessent, Lutnick et al) have seemed to have missed an essential when it comes to political decisions: The calendar!
You see, enacting a particular policy is one thing. Enacting it to bring about the desired positive effect in time for an election is another!
This is why so many democracies (the USA included) have such high sovereign indebtedness!
You see, politicians from across the political spectrum all know that money they wish to spend on their electorate (in terms of welfare spending on the left and tax cuts on the right) come from three sources:
#1: Taxes.
#2: Borrowing (to be paid back at some point).
#3: Printing the money (which causes inflation).
Generally, politicians chose to have a mix of all three!
The Unfortunate Mr Trump’s problem is that his chosen tool (tariffs [which are a form of indirect taxation]) will have the desired effect (to cause manufacturing to return to the USA) but this will take a long time (between 3 years [at the earliest] and twelve years [at the latest]).
This for the Unfortunate Mr Trump is a problem as he (and the Republican Party) face elections (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_United_States_elections) in 2027 and he himself – if he can change the US constitution or get the US Supreme Court to reinterpret same – would face a hypothetical election for a third term in 2029.
This is going to cause a LOT of pain for the US electorate! Electorates famously do NOT like pain!
You see the problem for the Unfortunate Mr Trump is made worse by the products the Unfortunate Mr Trump has chosen to levy tariffs on!
You see, front and centre of Mr Trump’s mind is likely to be motor vehicles! He will imagine a scenario in which the US auto industry finds itself with many more domestic customers visiting the showrooms of their dealerships placing orders for US made vehicles due to the fact that imported vehicles will cost a lot more!
However: There are products such as “smart phones” that are predominately made in China (https://www.reuters.com/technology/will-trump-tariffs-make-apple-iphones-more-expensive-2025-04-03/) and thus the demand for these items will be far less elastic than motor vehicles!
Now on a strictly accounting basis this is not all bad news for the Unfortunate Mr Trump as tariffs can only generate revenue for the US Treasury IF said goods are actually imported! IF said goods are not imported then no tariff is paid!
However since the average young person appears to have a smartphone addiction the demand for said product is in-and-of-itself necessarily highly inelastic; a fact that the criminals smuggling narcotics are very aware of!
Thus it is highly possible that the US Treasury will receive a reasonable income from these high tariffs on such goods. This of course will be very unpopular with those buying said imported smart phones!
Thus it might be the case that the US Treasury will find money flowing into it’s coffers.
Now the Unfortunate Mr Trump has put on record what he wants to do with such revenues: reduce taxes! By that he means taxes other than the tariffs generating the revenue.
Now, IF the Unfortunate Mr Trump decides to reduce the taxes paid by the very wealthy more than the taxes paid by the poor, one imagines that many US voters on low to moderate incomes will NOT be best pleased!
So, you may ask: What is Kneeler Starmer doing or planning to do?
Keep his head down and see what happens appears to be the answer!
This is quite a wise policy in fact!
Kneeler is pursuing the sensible tactic of not troubling “trouble” ‘till “trouble” troubles you!
A policy that a certain Mr Xi Jinping has decided to dispense (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg51yw700lo) with!
Kneeler might be thinking that if Chinese and EU manufactured motor vehicles become extortionately expensive in the US market, British made motor vehicles – whilst more expensive than before – will be comparatively competitive!
Many British Remoaners will deprecate this policy, demanding that the UK show solidarity with the EU. However this demand would have had more currency had not the French manoeuvred the EU into discriminating against UK arms manufacturers!