Brexit: On course to the slaughterhouse.

For many, the reality of scenes like the above are the principal motivating factor behind them “going veggie”. Our reason for using this image comes from a comment made by one of the contributors to BBC Radio 4’s “Any answers?” that followed the repeat on Saturday lunchtime of “Any Questions?” Of the prospect of a second referendum, the caller claimed that were the vote go the way of a (request to the EU) repeal of Article 50, “…..the EU would absolutely nail us to the floor!”
She is not wrong!
Before Salzburg, the smart money was on the EU kicking the can further down the road from Thursday 18th October to Thursday 15th November. This however seems to have been taken off the table. It seems, L’grand dénouement is now set for October.
There appears to be a certain logic to this: If the EU has come to the conclusion that there is no realistic prospect of further progress, then it is in fact counter productive (insofar as their interests are concerned) to drag this out any further. There will be 163 days (or 5 months and 12 days) between the October council meeting and Brexit Day. Time is so short now that it would be foolish for them to squander 29 days by putting things off until mid November.
Faced with the prospect of a no deal Brexit, the Westminster bubble will be plunged into crisis. The various representative bodies of industry and commerce such as the CBI and the TUC will demand that “something must be done!” Of course, the People’s Vote campaign will gain momentum.
It is pretty certain that Comrade Corbyn and his sidekick, Comrade McDonnell will be attempting to force a General Election.
The attitude of the Tories will be crucial here. They will be faced with four unpalatable prospects!
#1: Present a realistic proposal to the EU for a settlement and have the Tory party split down the middle and have the DUP vote against a No Confidence Motion.
#2: Carry on and enact a no deal Brexit and a guarantee of loosing at an inevitable early general election and face electoral wipe-out.
#3: Perform a volte-face and (with opposition votes) put through a second referendum bill – which of course if lost (a Remain victory) will be a complete humiliation and abject admission of failure and a guarantee of loosing at an inevitable early general election – and if won, #2 applies!
#4: Call a snap general election to renew the mandate for a Brexit based on a modified Chequers proposal – Chequers 2?
Of the four invidious options, Madame may have reached the conclusion that it is better to try a long shot and obtain a majority which does NOT rely on the DUP as the alternative is three variations of political death.
It sort of reminds one of those unfortunate convicts in the USA on “Death Row” – The bad news: they are going to be executed (eventually). The good (not so bad?) news: they have a choice of execution method: #1 Lethal injection; #2 Poison gas; #3 “Old Sparky” (the electric chair).
Viewed from this perspective, the reader will see that if they stretch their imagination and put themselves in Madame’s leopard print heels, #4 is the one option which gives her a (slight) chance of survival. Psychologically, when facing the prospect of certain death, people will attempt to save their lives by undertaking feats they would never do otherwise. Therefore expect Madame to announce a snap General Election at the Conservative Party Conference at the ICC Birmingham 30th September – 3rd October 2018.
Party conferences (as those Kippers who have returned from Birmingham will testify) boost morale and motivate activists to go about their and get leafleting and canvassing!
Recent events go to show that Gerard Batten has shrewd judgment insofar as elections are concerned.