Vote Nigel: Get Ed’

The title of today’s article will be what the Tories will be shouting from Westminster’s rooftops following the drubbing they are going to receive at the hands of UKIP in the Euro elections this May.
Cameron and his acolytes will tell of the terrible sufferings that will be visited upon the British People should they get a Labour government and not a Tory government.
What Cameron will FAIL to point out is the plain simple fact that since three quarters of the decisions affecting the UK are made and taken by the European Union – what he and Mr Miliband will have to handle is responsibility for the remaining quarter!
Therefore, since we already know who will be the government of this formerly sovereign country after 2015 – the European Union – let us look at the choices from a purely party political perspective; and by that we mean; What is best for UKIP?
From that, it appears that the BEST result UKIP can hope for is a Labour victory. Why?
Because of Cameron’s plans to devolve more power for Scotland should she decide to stay in the Union and the way the votes will likely fall and their effects. You see, Scotland sends 59 MPs to Westminster and Wales sends 40. Of these, 41 Scottish MPs are Labour and 28 Welsh MPs are Labour. What that means is this: Should Ed Miliband gain a Labour majority equal to or less than 68 (assuming the numbers of Labour Scottish and Welsh members remains unchanged) Miliband will govern England on Scottish and Welsh votes. In other words, a Labour government would institute a programme of legislation for England (hospitals, education &C.) using the votes of MPs who have constituencies where the authorities they are voting for do not apply to their own as the devolved bodies exercise these competences.
There would be a simple and democratic solution of restricting the voting competences of the MPs in direct proportion with the degree of devolution granted to their constituents. However, that would rob Mr Miliband of his power so that won’t happen!
No, what Mr Miliband will do instead is to offer a sop to address this glaring democratic deficit by putting in place elected regional assemblies in England. These talking shops will not have the same degree of competences as the Welsh and Scottish bodies. It is likely that some powers will be taken away from the local authorities and given to the regions together will some powers devolved from Westminster.
Why should UKIPers think that this is a good thing when many will have campaigned vociferously against them when the Labour Party last tried to foist these on the English People?
Because it will help UKIP.
You see, Miliband will ensure that these regional assemblies are staffed by salaried members and he will likely use the additional member system as well. That will mean there are some members elected by the First Past the Post and others on a Party List system. This means that although UKIP are extremely unlikely to win seats at Westminster, they are highly likely to win seats in the regions.
The most important thing for a political party to achieve is elected members. Loath elected regional assemblies as you do, Dear Reader, they are the best hope for UKIP.