Problem plus Incompetent Person equals Disaster!
In yesterday’s blog-post (https://british-gazette.com/serious-consequences-very-serious-consequences/), I speculated about the possible disastrous consequences of a US withdrawal from NATO.
I did not speculate about the potential legal difficulties that is enshrined in the National Defense Authorization Act enacted in December 2023 by the administration of President Biden. This law explicitly prohibits any president from suspending, terminating, denouncing, or withdrawing from NATO unless they have a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate. It also prohibits using federal funds to facilitate a withdrawal without this approval.
However: This is unlikely to prevent President Trump from action should he decide to do so. After all, Mr Trump “has form”! He should – by law – gain Congressional approval for Gulf War 3.0. He hasn’t!
In any event, if Mr Trump decides to have the USA withdraw from NATO he can do so, “de facto” whilst theoretically remaining in NATO “de jure”.
This might be accompanied by a requirement as unacceptable (to European members) as Austria’s ultimatum to Serbia in 1914: That US forces were withdrawing with immediate effect from their European NATO bases, recalling NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) currently General Alexus G. Grynkewich (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Allied_Commander_Europe) and announcing that the USA will no longer be bound by Article 5 until every other NATO member is spending (in his opinion) 5% of their Gross Domestic Product on defence and that such spending on military hardware must henceforth be with US defence manufacturers.
The danger: The recent Ukrainian strikes against Russia’s two oil and gas export terminals at the head of the Gulf of Finland (https://youtu.be/Wk1i_NUv_x0) appear to have been launched from a vessel in the Gulf of Finland or from a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland. In any event, such represents a very serious escalation of the war due to an actual involvement by a NATO member state or a perceived involvement (by Russia) of a NATO member state.
BTW: I happen to have knowledge (albeit decades old) of the Gulf of Finland as I spent four years (1972 to 1976) in the British Merchant Navy serving aboard two ships that sailed to and from the Finnish port Kota near the head of the Gulf and near the Russian boarder. This required passage across the Baltic Sea and passage across the North Sea and the Straits of Dover/English Channel which meant entering the Baltic via the Skagerrak and Kattegat and exiting via the Kattegat and the Skagerrak. This involves passage through Danish territorial waters.
I have a very nasty sinking feeling in my gut that there might be some manner of co-ordination between Russia and the USA in recent events including Gulf War 3.0. We have seen the MAGA Republican politicians invite their opposite numbers from Russia’s Duma to tour the US Congress! All very pally!
As of the date of this blog-post’s uploading, the Kremlin have not reacted to the above strikes. IF they do (threatening direct action against NATO) and the response by the Trump administration is to cut off all aid (US Intelligence) and to demand that Europe’s NATO member states cease all support for Ukraine and that the EU cancel the proposed 90 billion Euro loan to Ukraine and demand that Ukraine accept the proposal offered by Russia as the price for maintaining US support for NATO – even going as far as requiring Mr Musk to restore Starlink to Russia’s forces whilst terminating Starlink to Ukrainian forces; then the situation for Ukraine and Europe is very grave.
Mr Trump will of course claim to be the Peacemaker!
Plus: He will be demand the Nobel Peace Prize!