Dans le langage de la diplomatie, the phrase, “Serious Consequences” denotes actions such as limiting, suspending or terminating diplomatic relations with another state. The phrase, “Very Serious Consequences” denotes possible military action against another state.
As a result of the consequences resulting from Gulf War 3.0, President Trump says he’s considering leaving NATO as Starmer says UK will host talks on Strait of Hormuz (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c36r5p1l7w3t).
On the webpage, ArtII.S2.C2.1.10 Breach and Termination of Treaties (
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S2-C2-1-10/ALDE_00012961/), it would appear that President Trump has the executive authority to do just this.
In “normal times”, this would have serious consequences. But now in the Spring of 2026, the world – and Europe in particular are NOT experiencing “normal times”!
There is the Russia-Ukraine War. The situation is very, very grave. The Russia-Ukraine War has transformed itself into a brutal war of attrition and it appears to have developed along the lines of previous wars of attrition: That the side that is exhausted to the point of being unable to continue hostilities is deemed the loser and the other side is deemed the victor.
As of today, Ukraine’s position is less unfavourable that Russia’s. It is widely thought that President Putin is preparing to do something he would rather not do: Conscript 300,000 young men into the Russian Army. To date, President Putin has tended to eschew this traditional method or wartime recruitment, preferring to pay very large sums of money to those men who volunteer to join the Russian Army to fight in Ukraine. However, Russia is running out of money and also decreasing numbers of volunteers are coming forward. Thus President Putin has reached a crisis point: He has to draft large numbers of men to continue hostilities. However, he knows that if he does so and these men die in the same ratio of their predecessors and that Russia does not achieve a breakthrough on the battlefield, he has to paraphrase President Trump, has played his last card.
Were President Putin to find himself in the position that he has played all his cards and the situation on the battlefield remains significantly unchanged, he is likely to cease to be President of Russia. This for President Trump is a situation very very different from that experienced by former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss when she was forced to resign on 25 October 2022. Liz was able to leave office and to enjoy her Prime Ministerial pension after she lost her seat of South West Norfolk to Terry Jermy of the Labour Party on Thursday 4 July 2024. Liz now spends much of her time in the USA on the fringes of Republican Party politics. President Putin knows that such a comfortable and peaceful retirement does NOT await him!
Thus President Putin may well consider another option; an option that will be gifted to him by the actions of President Trump.
Rather than send the latest batch of recruits to the front in Ukraine, he may well send these recruits to the border that Belarus has with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – as well as the borders Russia has with Finland, Estonia and Latvia.
He will then issue an ultimatum: That Ukraine agree to the peace plan put froward by Russia in the talks with President Trump’s envoys. Failure to commit will result in war with NATO – the USA no longer being a member and having withdrawn ALL it’s forces from Europe.
The reaction to such an ultimatum being delivered on say a Sunday will in a crash of the currency and stock markets across Europe. Interest rates in the European countries will skyrocket and the continent will find itself in a financial crisis.
Those countries bordering Russia will find countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy and Turkey refuse to commit to NATO’s Article 5. Having NO effective air defence against Russian ballistic missiles the UK government will feel that t is forced to capitulate.
Russia will demand that the NATO members cease ALL support for Ukraine and abandon all sanctions against Russia.
President Trump will preside over the Peace Conference, and such is his level of self absorbed narcissism, he will demand that he be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for 2027!
The result of such a capitulation will be a flood – in their millions – of the Ukrainian population of Ukraine to Europe.
This will RADICALLY shift European politics to the right.
NB: Advice for US tourists considering a vacation to Europe in 2026/7: Don’t!