As the Russia-Ukraine war of attrition drags on, the consequences of defeat for each of the belligerents become more severe. There is in addition a concomitant risk for the allies of each belligerent, as has been demonstrated (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-zelensky-nato-rafale-fight-jet-latest-b2867126.html).
It MUST be borne in mind that for President Putin, failure to achieve his aims in what he wishes to describe as a “Special Military Operation” will have grave consequences. He will therefore continue the military operation until success (by his estimation) is achieved as he wishes to avoid the consequences of the failure to meet these objectives.
Russia is facing severe difficulties in terms of logistics, loss of men and materiel (which are at levels experienced by belligerents in the Great War) – together with the economic and financial consequences -and will be seeking ways of delivering disruptions to those powers supporting Ukraine whilst trying to avoid a direct confrontation.
I think we can expect with a high degree of confidence that 2026 is going to be a difficult year for all of us!