Mrs Lucy Connolly (above) has been in the custody of the state since her arrest on Tuesday 6 August 2024. Her appeal against the sentence (not the verdict) is to be heard tomorrow, Thursday 15 May 2025. This means that the lady will have spent 283 days or 9 months and 10 days in custody.
The judge’s sentencing remarks were broadcast and are available on YouTube (https://youtu.be/E6b3nXrevsY?si=vt1SPk2Td9BiUPj4). A .PDF is available online as well (https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/R-v-Lucy-Connolly.pdf).
I happen to disagree with some of the remarks made by His Honour Judge Melbourne Inman KC Recorder of Birmingham at Mrs Connolly’s sentencing.
Remark # 11. I have to apply the Sentencing Council Guidelines for this offence.
BG Comment: No. You do not have to apply the guidelines – the clue lies in the word “guidelines” – these are meant as a guide. To be applied in most cases. It is clear to most of the world that Mrs Connolly was not “most cases”.
Remark 12. In relation to your culpability this is clearly a category A case – as both prosecution and your counsel agree, because you intended to incite serious violence.
BG Comment: A question, not to the Recorder of Birmingham but to Mrs Connolly’s counsel – why did you agree that the culpability was Category A?
Remark 13. In relation to harm it is again agreed, correctly, that what you did encouraged activity which threatened or endangered life and therefore falls within category 1. There is also further relevant factor in relation to harm in that you sought, and achieved, widespread dissemination of your statement by posting it on social media.
BG Comment: A question, not to the Recorder of Birmingham but to Mrs Connolly’s counsel – why did you agree that the harm fell within Category 1?
Remark 26. The sentence on count 1 therefore is one of 31 months imprisonment. You will serve forty percent of that sentence. When you are released you will remain on license for the balance of the sentence and if you fail to accord with the terms of the license or commit any further offence you can be returned to serve the balance of the sentence.
BG Comment: The above remark brings the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland into disrepute!
What should we expect by the Lords Justices of Appeal?
Hopefully a reduction in sentence to “time served” – 283 days (9 months and 10 days). Sadly, I doubt it. I do expect Mrs Connolly to be freed however, either tomorrow or on Friday 23 May 2025.
Why?
Because I expect the Court of Appeal to reduce her sentence by 25% which would mean 23 months and 9 days – that is likely to be rounded down to 23 months or rounded up to 24 months. This will mean that applying a 40% to the custodial part of her sentence will cause her to be released tomorrow if the reduced sentence is 23 months; or on Friday 23 May 2025 if the reduced sentence is 24 months (two years).
This because I reckon that this deeply authoritarian state will wish to keep this unfortunate lady on a short leash for several more months as they will be aware that there will be a great interest on the part of the media worldwide to interview her and this is something they clearly wish to prevent – which is why she was refused temporary release during her sentence.
The other aspect is that two years custody would mean that Mrs Connolly would still be on the leash during the local elections on Thursday 7 May 2026 – elections that both the Conservative and Labour parties are concerned about!
What is so sad is that the nation recently celebrated the 80th anniversary of VE Day. Many of the fallen if resurrected today would ask: “For what did we give our lives?”