The Fortunate Sunak (https://www.rishisunak.com/) may very well be savouring his remaining days as the Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition before he hands over to his successor in his party’s leadership contest (https://www.conservatives.com/announcements/leadership-election-2024).
I personally doubt if he will wish to continue being the Member for Richmond and Northallerton to take up his allotted seat behind the opposition front bench. After all – unlike many Labour MPs – he does not need the money!
The new leader will be announced on Saturday 2nd November 2024 – three days before “Bonfire Night” so the Fortunate Sunak will have to wait four days before discovering the identity of the next President of the United States of America.
Readers may well question why I am making a bit of a habit of referencing this particular contest when this blog is primarily a UK focused blog. It is because the choice the American People will make on Bonfire Night will significantly affect the UK and it’s government! “Two Tier Keir” will be desperately hoping for a Harris presidency and will be dreading a Trump presidency!
You see, when Donald Trump shouts, “America First” – he means it!
Donald Trump and JD Vance, their advisers and supporters know that the USA faces an existential challenge to it’s economic and political well being from “BRICS” (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). He will wish to “do a deal” with them. You see, the existential challenge is the BRICS plan to cease to use the US$ as the de-facto world reserve currency. This is an existential threat because of the size of the USA’s debt (https://www.usdebtclock.org/). This debt is ONLY sustainable IF the US $ continues to act as the de-facto World Reserve Currency!
Thus the USA will likely offer the following to the members of BRICS:
Brazil: US action to ensure that Brazil becomes a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council with Veto.
Russia: US action to force Ukraine into accepting Russia’s terms with no reparations payable by Russia and removal of all sanctions imposed on Russia and her satellite state Belarus. Plus the US to withdraw from NATO and thus Article 5.
India: US action to ensure that India becomes a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council with Veto.
China: US action to force Taiwan into accepting a “Special Arrangement” with China along the lines of the deal with the UK over Hong Kong with a time period to allow for US interests to acquire technology in Taiwan to be relocated in the USA.
South Africa: A trade deal and support for the SA Rand.
The addition of two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council with veto might also result in France being forced to cede it’s PM seat and veto to the European Union and the UK being forced to cede it’s PM seat and veto to India.
This will be a huge geo-political set back for the UK and humiliate the Labour government. This will be exacerbated by the UN forcing the UK into negotiating with Argentina to hand the Falkland Islands over. The USA will gain as US oil companies will have received a special deal to exploit the large oil reserves there. The greatest humiliation will likely be the rescinding of the strategic co-operation agreement governing the Trident D5 SLBMs thus forcing the UK into giving up these weapons.
In return for these concessions the BRICS nations will agree to abandon all plans and steps already taken to abandon the US $ and will henceforth support the de-facto World Reserve Currency that was and will be the US $.
There will of course be some compensation to the Extremely Unfortunate Starmer: the complete and utter humiliation of Nigel Farage!
You see, a certain Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon will be the “new kid on the block” in Republican Party Circles!