Above, Robert Trelford McKenzie (11 September 1917 – 12 October 1981) was a Canadian professor of politics and sociology, and a psephologist (one who does statistical analysis of elections). He is perhaps best known in Britain as one of the main presenters of the BBC’s General Election programmes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_McKenzie_(psephologist)).
It is generally assumed by the mainstream media that the UK 2024 General Election is “done and dusted” and is all over – bar the voting!
That the Labour Party will gain an overwhelming majority and that the Conservatives will be reduced to little over 100 MPs (or even below 100) is a given.
Submitting the following results:
Conservative 20%
Labour 47%
Liberal Democrat 13%
Green 10%
Reform UK 10%
to this website (https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament?election=2019nb&CON=20&LAB=47&LD=13&GRN=10&RefUK=10#UnitedKingdom)
I got the following results:
Labour 425
Conservative 123
Liberal Democrat 35
Reform UK 0
Green 1
SNP 45
Plaid Cymru 1
I would suggest that Clacton is chalked up as win for Reform UK and thus the Conservative’s numbers are reduced by one!
In his blog-post today (https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/politics-struggling-in-the-dark/), my friend Dr. Richard North is of the opinion that the polls may be very wrong and are not projecting what might take place on 4th July 2024.