Brexit: Letting the cat out of the bag?

Above, an amusing video of a kitten’s encounter with a carrier bag.
In his blog-post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86632), Dr. North continues to analyse the progress of Brexit. It makes for sombre reading. The ténor of Dr. North’s reporting of Brexit is that through foolishness (and possibly, more sinister reasons in some cases) a “hard Brexit” is in danger of taking place. In support of this dystopian hypothesis, Dr. North has amassed much evidence and the logic of his arguments is very convincing.
For Dr. North’s fears to come to fruition, it requires the senior politicians in the government to incompetently pursue a set of actions that would bringing down their own government, destroy any chance of electoral success for the Tory party for decades and finish their own political careers as well as most of their back benchers – be the Remainer or Brexiteer.
If you read Dr. North’s blog you will be forced either to one of three conclusions:
1. A hard Brexit appears inevitable.
2. A miracle will occur to prevent it.
3. There is another explanation for the actions of this government.
Now here I must admit to a prevailing influence upon my. My late father. “Dad” was a long time Liberal – that is a Liberal who did not think it either a good or honourable idea to hand the government of the UK over to a foreign power. “Dad” was a Liberal in the Gladstonian tradition.
The Rogers family, originally from outside Callington in south East Cornwall in what was then the Bodmin Division of Cornwall, was a family of Liberal Party supporting farmers. The Member of Parliament at the time of my father’s birth and when my grandfather was politically active was Thomas Agar-Robartes of Lanhydrock. When in my late twenties I became politically active, it was the Liberal Party I first joined.
The Tories were NEVER to be trusted.
When he was 10, “Dad” moved along with the family to Honiton in Devon where my grandfather had bought a new farm – having sold the one in Cornwall. “Dad” continued the family political tradition and joined the Liberal Party and was an activist.
“Dad” was out of work at the time of the 1931 general election and thus was free to help the Liberal candidate, John Halse against the sitting Tory, Cedric Drewe, the son of Julius Drewe the founder of Home and Colonial Stores and the builder of Castle Drogo. Julius Drewe was a typical social climber and had pretentiously added an “e” to his surname.
The 1931 election was notable for two reasons, it took place on Tuesday 27th October 1931 and thus was the last UK general election not to take place on a Thursday. It also saw a landslide election victory for the Tories with them winning 470 seats.
Honiton was known as a “blue monkey seat” meaning the Tory voters would send a Tory to Westminster even if it was a monkey with a blue ribbon around it’s neck. Having said that, “Dad” and his fellow Liberals pushed the boat out and really got stuck in handing out leaflets, pushing them through letter boxes, canvassing and setting up public meetings – which were always very well attended and boisterous. “Dad’s” motorbike proved most useful.Things were going well. “Dad” and his comrades knew it, and from their canvassing the Tories knew it as well! Thus it was on the eve of poll the Tories played a dirty trick!
On the Monday, a report appeared in the newspapers that John Halse was a defrocked priest. That is to say, a priest who had been sacked and dis-ordained for gross misconduct. Now it MUST be understood that in October 1931, this was a big deal!
The result amongst the socially conservative voters of the constituency was a big last minute shift away from John to Drewe.
The results:
Cedric Drewe: 21,854
John Halse: 14,563
Tory Majority: 7,291
So, what about John Halse. Was he a defrocked priest?
NO.
John had read Theology at university and had intended to seek ordination and be a priest. However, in his final year he decided against this and thus did not seek ordination and pursued another career instead!
In other words, the Tories LIED!
NEVER TRUST A TORY!
Now let us “fast forward” eighty six years to October 2017!
Given the importance of the talks in Brussels, it was astonishing to see Dimwit Davis sprawling on the green benches alongside Madame Mayhem when his backside should have been on a chair opposite M. Barnier!
Extraordinary!
Then we have Chancellor Hapless Hammond declaring that he was not going to spend any money on preparing for a “hard Brexit” until the very last minute!
What planet do these people think they are living on?
The Klingon home-world perhaps?
But the clue lies in a radio interview broadcast Madame made for LBC. The Guardian has picked it up and has run with it: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/10/theresa-may-refuses-to-say-if-she-would-vote-for-brexit-in-fresh-poll
Madame of course ruled out the possibility of a second referendum.
However, there are circumstances however where a second referendum would become inevitable!
In the situation outlined by Dr. North in his blog-post today we could find that in the light of zero progress, the European Union may decide to halt the talks in December.
At this point the politics of the situation may well come to a head. Faced with no talks we may see negative consequences in terms of the London Stock market and the value of Sterling. However, the “kicker” will be the International Credit Reference Agencies.
In these circumstances the ICAs may well down-rate the UK’s credit rating substantially. IF they do then the interest on the UK’s debt (both public and private) will increase. A lot!
Furthermore as “the clock ticks” towards Friday 29th March 2019 the credit rating will drop and the interest payments will rise!
The plain simple FACT is that HMG will be unable to allow this situation to continue for any length of time.
There will be ONE way out: a Second Referendum: To proceed with Brexit or not!
Now there may be those Tories who think that it will be relatively straightforward – albeit a tad embarrassing – of informing the EU that HMG will put a repeal bill before Parliament in respect of revoking Article 50; The European Union (Revocation of notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017!
Err…. No! It won’t!
Let us put it this way by means of an example.
You Dear Reader have been caught, In flagrante delicto with a young lady by your good lady!
Now then, you know how she will react! It will be generally be a case of tears, screams and often objects thrown in your general direction!
Basically, the formerly sovereign United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is in a constitutional and supra-national prison! And like any prison, virtually everything is trade-able and has a price!
It is a racing certainty that the previous rebates applied to the UK’s contributions will be withdrawn.
Furthermore, the opt out to the Schengen Area (an area within Europe where there are no passport checks or border controls – there is complete free movement of people) will likely go. This of course will mean that “the Jungle at Calais” will become the Jungle at Dover!
Worse, there may be a requirement to join the Euro in 2020!
NB: Whilst Denmark has secured an “opt-out”, it has pegged its krone to the euro at €1 = DKK 7.46038 ± 2.25% through the ERM II since it replaced the original ERM on 1st January 1999.
The plain simple FACT is that many Tory “Ultra’s” – along with UKIP – may regard that the more onerous the EU’s terms for rescinding Article 50 are, the greater their chances of securing Brexit as those who a sympathetic to the Brexit cause are more likely to vote “Leave” the more onerous the EU’s terms are.
This MIGHT happen before the end of this year!
You see, from Madame’s viewpoint her stance has been reasonable and moreover, seeking to implement the wishes of the British People on that momentous day on Thursday 23rd June 2016!
And in many ways the lady will have a point!
You see, Mrs May made it clear that in her opinion, the 52% of British voters who voted for Brexit voted to “take back control” of the UK’s borders. She would argue that “taking back control” of the UK’s borders did not mean remaining in the EEA, aka the single market, aka “the Norway Option”.
True, Dr. North will point out that Norway has a greater measure of control on migrant workers than does the UK. However, this degree of latitude cannot be spun as Mr Farage’s “Australian style points based system”
You see, because of the statements made by such as Messrs Johnson and Gove and Mr Farage during the campaign, Madame can justly say that there is NO mandate given for the Norway Option. By asking for her special deep and comprehensive “cake and eat it” relationship, Madame is asking for what those 52% of British voters voted for!
IF you doubt this ask any UKIP activist – with the exception of your Editor of course!
This organ has from more or less the start of the EU referendum campaign been insisting that Dr. North’s Flexcit is the ONLY do-able, practical Brexit strategy for the UK.
Put it this way: there is a correct way to do most things! One of my cousins is a doctor. When performing a surgical amputation, her first task is to ligate the supplying artery and vein, to prevent hemorrhage (bleeding). IF she were not to do this, the patient would bleed to death! IT is as simple and as bloody as that! Period!
It is all very well for Ukippers to go on about leaving the Single Market but IF they want to Brexit, then remaining in the Single Market is mandatory! End of!
Therefore, when the history of Brexit is written historians will point out that the refusal of HMG to pursue Flexcit indicated HMG’s unwillingness to act on the British People’s wishes.
Many in UKIP have accused your Editor of being a Remoaner. This is bullshit and libellous.
Your Editor has been since 1993 a EuroRealist.
When the Tories put themselves before the British People at the next General Election they will argue – with some justification – that they pursued the Brexit that the people voted for.
Many Tories will secretly delight in the prospect of Eurozone membership for it will reduce the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the status of the Scottish Finance Minister which will mean that should Comrade Chancellor McDonnell occupy 11 Downing Street, he will not be able to embark upon the socialist policies he so wants.
Remember: NEVER trust a Tory!